Statistics is a huge part of any sports, and that includes basketball. With stats, you can accurately predict a player's or team's performance in the upcoming game, which is very advantageous, especially if you're betting.
And that is also the same in basketball. With statistics like offensive rating, turnover differential, etc., you can also predict a game's outcome just using these numbers. Yes, they might only be numbers, but these numbers say a lot about what would happen in the game. That said, getting at least acquainted with them will give you a bit of an advantage when betting.
However, there are many basketball stats out there, and it is quite challenging to find one that would accurately predict the outcome of a game since each stat is tailored specifically to one aspect of a player or team. But, if you have a formula of your own that consists of different stats that tie to a win rate, then you'll get yourself a winning streak. That said, which stats should you look out for in basketball?
Most people tend to look at offensive ratings regarding how much score a team is getting on average. However, that is far from the truth. In reality, offensive rating measures how a team is scoring efficiently, instead of how much score they have.
To be more precise, back in 2018, all of the teams which scored highly in the offensive rating made it into the playoffs. To make matters clear, let's look at the Spurs. The Spurs have an average score that placed them in 18th place in the league. However, they are placed 8th in the offensive rating.
In short, the total scores you make don't matter that much in offensive rating. It's how you make them. That said, scoring efficiency is essential in a team's offensive rating, which is the ultimate goal in winning games.
Field Goal Attempts
Field goal attempt is every chance you get to score, other than a free throw. That means the more field goal attempt a team has, the more likely it is to win. In most cases, the more field goal attempts a team has over its opponent, the more it has the chance to score and win the game.
This is even made better because even though a particular team has a low shooting percentage, it can still win as long as it has more field goal attempts as it can give them a chance to have a flutter in scores.
This is why most bettors tend to bet on a team with high field goal attempts, despite having a low shooting percentage. In theory, it's simple, but field goal attempts take a lot in factors. To get the field goal attempt, you need to learn about a team's defense and offense, playing style, and their coach's game plan.
Assists on Field Goals
Speaking of field goals, one stat you can also consider is a team's assist on field goals. Assists on field goals tell about a team's capability in finding the open player when scoring. A percentage of over 50% is okay in terms of assists, but as a bettor, you should be looking for a team with at least 65% in assists on field goals.
However, probably the downside of this stat is that it is often overlooked in a lot of basketball analyses. That means you have to compute it yourself most of the time. That also means you have to do a little math yourself to get the assist percentage.
3 Points Percentage and Attempts
Over time, the importance of three-point shots is getting more and more critical to many teams in the league. This is because it has been the trend lately in the league, as it is the fastest way to rack up more points as the game continues.
One example of this is the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have made a dynasty in the league that's centered around three-point shots. The closest team to dethrone is the Rockets, and they even have Kevin Durant.
The average differential of a team in three points is 5.76 for the percentage rank and 7.76 for attempts. If you relate these numbers to field goal attempts, you'll see how three points have a huge impact. It might not be as heavily significant as a defensive and offensive rating, but it plays a significant factor in racking up points.
Not only that but teams who are efficient in making three points do very well in reaching the postseason. Last year, 9 of the top 10 teams with a high percentage in three points and 8 of the top 10 teams who had the most three-point attempts made it into the playoffs.
Statistics can tell you a lot about a player's or team's efficiency in the field. However, a single stat alone is not enough to accurately predict the game's outcome. There are a lot of factors you should take into consideration before you attempt to predict. That's why you need to study each stat and fit them into your formula to win more.