With the 2026/27 Fantasy Premier League season getting underway, managers are once again searching for reliable forwards who can provide consistent returns without taking up too much of the budget. One familiar name on the radar is Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins.
However, at £8.0m, Ollie Watkins simply looks like an expensive mistake to avoid in FPL 26/27.
Watkins has been one of the Premier League's most reliable forwards over the past few years, but there are now several warning signs surrounding him. Declining attacking returns, uncertainty over his Aston Villa future, and increased competition for his starting position make the England international a huge gamble at his current price.
Ollie Watkins' Numbers Are Heading in the Wrong Direction
The biggest concern for FPL managers is the clear decline in Watkins' attacking output over the last three Premier League seasons.
- 2023/24 — 19 goals, 13 assists
- 2024/25 — 16 goals, 8 assists
- 2025/26 — 16 goals, 3 assists
The goals haven't disappeared completely, but his overall goal contributions have fallen massively with each passing season.
Watkins recorded an outstanding 32 goal contributions in 2023/24, before dropping to 24 in 2024/25 and then just 19 last season. That's a significant downward trend for a player who still commands a premium-ish £8.0m FPL price.
Even his 2025/26 numbers arguably make his season look better than it actually was. Watkins struggled for consistency for significant periods and only really found his best form towards the very end of the campaign. That late run helped him finish with a respectable 16 Premier League goals, but FPL managers need consistent returns throughout the season rather than a forward who may take months to hit form.
£8.0m Is Too Much for This Level of Uncertainty
Price is ultimately the biggest issue.
If Watkins were considerably cheaper, there could be an argument for accepting some of the risks. At £8.0m, however, FPL managers should expect a forward who is close to being nailed in the starting XI and capable of delivering consistent attacking returns.
Watkins currently doesn't provide enough certainty in either department.
Spending £8.0m on him also means sacrificing money that could be used elsewhere. With every £0.5m potentially making a significant difference to your opening squad, committing such a large amount to a player surrounded by question marks doesn't look particularly appealing.
Could Ollie Watkins Still Leave Aston Villa?
There is also uncertainty surrounding Watkins' future at Villa.
The striker has been linked with a move away for some time, and it wouldn't be the biggest shock if he left Aston Villa before the summer transfer window closes.
From an FPL perspective, that's another unnecessary complication. A transfer could completely change his appeal depending on the club, system, and competition for places at his potential new destination.
Until the transfer window closes, managers selecting Watkins are therefore taking a gamble not only on his performances but also on where he will actually be playing his football.
Brian Madjo Has Given Unai Emery Another Option
Perhaps the most interesting development is the emergence of 17-year-old Brian Madjo.
Watkins was completely absent from Aston Villa's UEFA Super Cup squad against PSG, failing to even make the bench. In his place, Madjo was handed a huge opportunity and produced a stunning performance, scoring a record-breaking goal on the biggest stage.
For such a young striker to deliver in that environment immediately gives Unai Emery something to think about.
It would previously have been difficult to imagine Watkins losing his position as Villa's first-choice striker. Following Madjo's emergence, however, it wouldn't be the biggest shock if Emery decided to give the youngster more opportunities or potentially even start him ahead of Watkins.
That possibility alone should concern FPL managers considering spending £8.0m on Watkins.
FPL 26/27 Ollie Watkins: Final Verdict
Watkins could obviously still prove his doubters wrong. He's an experienced Premier League goalscorer and, if he remains at Aston Villa and gets regular starts, there will inevitably be periods when he becomes an attractive FPL option.
But right now, the risk is simply too high.
His attacking returns have declined considerably over the past three seasons, his future at Villa remains uncertain, and Madjo's emergence has created another potential threat to his minutes.
At £8.0m, there are simply too many question marks.
The better strategy is to avoid Watkins initially and reconsider him if Aston Villa enter a particularly favorable run of fixtures. Even then, managers should first make sure he's still at the club and, crucially, that Emery continues to start him ahead of Madjo.
Until those uncertainties disappear, Ollie Watkins is one of the bigger FPL risks to avoid heading into the 2026/27 season.
