The inaugural edition of the UEFA Women’s Nations League 2023/24 group stage is nearing its end. The teams moving into the finals are yet to be decided with two games remaining with relegation and play-off places also needs to be determined in League A. The final set of games will be played in the last international break on 1st and 5th December 2023. The matches of the UEFA Women’s Nations League 2023/24 Finals will take place between 21 and 28 February 2024.
Teams moving into the Finals will not only play for the trophy but have the opportunity to qualify for the Olympics 2024. As France are already hosting that competition taking one of the European slots, the teams going into the final of the Nations League will go to Paris if Les Bleues do not make it to the showpiece next year. In a scenario they do, the team finishing third by winning the Bronze final will progress. There are some big names at stake who could miss out on the opportunity.
Here we look at the probability of each team in the group stage progressing to the UEFA Women’s Nations League 2023/24 finals:
League A
Group A
Quite unexpectedly, Group A has opened up the possibility of Euro winners England getting knocked out from contention for the Nations League finals and also the Olympics, as Team GB, next year. Not only that the Lionesses can also go to the relegation play-off if finished third. While underdogs Belgium have a fascinating chance of finishing at the top of their group and progressing to the knockouts played next year. Sarina Wiegman's team have to win their remaining games against the Netherlands at Wembley and rivals Scotland away to stand a chance of qualification.
However, the Red Flames collecting six points in the final two matches will eliminate the Lionesses due to a better head-to-head record and will take them to first place. England also need to defeat the Dutch by bettering the 2-1 defeat in the reverse clash otherwise they will still fall short regardless of their result against Scotland in the final match. Meanwhile, Scotland needs to win against Belgium and hope England loses to the Dutch before facing them at Hampden to avoid relegation. Leaders Netherlands need five points in the rest of the matches to confirm their place in the group.
Pos | Teams | PL | W | D | L | GD | PTS |
1 | Netherlands | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
2 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
3 | England | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
4 | Scotland | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Fixtures
Friday, 1 December 2023
Belgium vs Scotland
England vs Netherlands
Tuesday, 5 December 2023
Netherlands vs Belgium
Scotland vs England
Group B
France is hosting the Olympics so they will only care about winning the inaugural Women’s Nations League with the finals in 2024. Les Bleues dropped their first point in the group after they were held 0-0 unexpectedly by bottom-placed Norway at home having won the rest of the matches. Despite that, France will make it to the next round with a draw against Austria in the second spot in back-to-back home matches. A loss will keep them at the top provided that Austria does not beat them with a bigger margin than the reverse clash while they require a result against Portugal in the final match.
Austria are the only other team in the group in contention for the top place in the group. They need to win the remaining games including beating France with a bigger margin so they have a better head-to-head and Portugal to avoid any chance of moving into a relegation playoff. Portugal and Norway are in a direct battle to avoid relegation to League B in the penultimate game before facing the big hitters in the group. However, one has to land in a playoff place.
Pos | Teams | PL | W | D | L | GD | PTS |
1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
2 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
3 | Portugal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
4 | Norway | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
Friday, 1 December 2023
Norway vs Portugal
France vs Austria
Tuesday, 5 December 2023
Austria vs Norway
Portugal vs France
Group C
There is a good tussle for the top spot as leaders Denmark, who have won all four games so far, maintain a three-point difference against second-place Germany. The Dane has a better head-to-head record having beaten the Germans 2-0 in the opener and another win against the Die Nationalelf in the next match will seal their place in the finals. Germany would like to be the thorn in their way with the need to wipe out their deficit in the last face-off. They have won the three other games in the group having the same goal difference as the table toppers. Iceland and Wales have no chance of qualification and are in a fight to beat the drop.
Pos | Teams | PL | W | D | L | GD | PTS |
1 | Denmark | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
2 | Germany | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
3 | Iceland | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
4 | Wales | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Friday, 1 December 2023
Wales vs Iceland
Germany vs Denmark
Tuesday, 5 December 2023
Denmark vs Iceland
Wales vs Germany
Group D
World Cup winners Spain have been the dominant force in their group and only the second team to have won all their group matches in League A of the Nations League. La Roja are also the top-scoring side with 16 goals from four matches. Leading Group D, one more victory for Spain in the next match against Italy will seal their passage to the finals. Avoiding defeats in the remaining matches could also do as the best second-place Sweden could reach is 13 points that too with an inferior head-to-head record.
The Blue and Yellow fear missing out on the Olympics next year a tournament which they have never failed to qualify for before. They require Spain to lose against Italy before snapping up the opportunity themselves in the top-two clash on the final day. A win for Le Azzurre will save them from automatic relegation place but they will still enter the playoffs at best. Switzerland have to win the rest of the matches to move away from bottom place with no points in the bag so far.
Pos | Teams | PL | W | D | L | GD | PTS |
1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
2 | Sweden | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
3 | Italy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
4 | Switzerland | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Friday 1 December 2023
Switzerland vs Sweden
Spain vs Italy
Tuesday 5 December 2023
Spain vs Sweden
Italy vs Switzerland