Turkey has established themselves as a dark horse going into major competitions for some years now, but they have grossly underachieved when the stage was set for them to perform. Returning to the World Cup stage after 24 years in 2026, once again, there were expectations for this extremely talented side to cause the tournament favourites a lot of issues and go deeper into the competition. Yet, they stepped onto the same mud again and shockingly exited from the group stages. It was even more striking considering the team was said to have a change in mentality when Vincenzo Montella stepped in, proven by their run to the quarterfinal stage of Euro 2024, which seemed to be showing that they have finally gotten over their mental blockade with an astute tactician on the touchline. However, their performance in North America reignited the concerns again and left with the lingering question of why, despite possessing some of the best talent and quality, they fail each time at major competitions.
The elimination from the 2026 World Cup hurt Turkish fans the most as they were put in a group that they could have genuinely won or finished second, considering the tournament’s co-hosts, the USA’s major advantage of playing at home. Instead, shockingly losing 2-0 to Australia in their World Cup opener and unable to get past a 10-man Paraguay side who scored early in the 1-0 defeat, got them grouped with no chance to make it to the knockout stage. Hence, by no means they cannot match or exceed their best finish in 2002, which was finishing third. Doing so in a 48-nation tournament was always going to be a tall task even for the best of sides, but nobody expected the Crescent Star to be eliminated in this manner without even scoring a goal. Far worse, even if they collect a win against the leaders, the USA, in their final group game, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side already sealed knockout qualification, Turkey will finish rock bottom in their group.
A Promising Squad That Failed to Deliver
On paper, Turkey possessed many of the ingredients required to be a proper dark horse in the competition after a promising qualification campaign, which generated a considerable amount of optimism around the squad for the World Cup 2026. Armed with a talented squad, exciting young players and a passionate fanbase, it was hard to argue against. World-class talents like Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, coupled with veterans like Hakan Çalhanoğlu, the team seemed to have an excellent blend of youth and experience to succeed in the contest. However, success in tournaments, especially the World Cup, rarely depends on talent alone. Their campaign has once again highlighted the gap between potential and performance. Turkey's performances across their opening matches exposed several familiar weaknesses that have repeatedly undermined the national team over the years.
Defensive Vulnerabilities
The factor that has always troubled Vincenzo Montela’s side is their defensive vulnerabilities due to their style of play. Turkey pushes their full-back aggressively, sometimes even behaving as forwards, which means the turnover of possession with two aged centre-backs without much recovering pace exposes them to rapid counter-attacks from the opposition. Their inability to maintain compactness between the lines leaves space for opponents to exploit during transitions. The three goals they conceded so far in the tournament came in the same manner.
Lack of a focal point in the attack
Despite having one of the most talented squads at their disposal, Turkey strikingly don’t have a prolific centre-forward to convert chances, unlike other elite teams. The result is that the team failed to find the net, not even once in their opening two games, which dumped them out of the competition. Montela has deployed Kerem Atrakoglu in the false nine position, but major tournaments are defined by natural and prolific strikers and while FC Porto’s 6ft 3 tall Deniz Gül is an out-and-out number nine, the 21-year-old doesn’t possess the required lethalness. As a case, Turkey were left punting harmless crosses in the opposition’s box.
Inability to open deep block and overreliance on individual brilliance
Turkey averaged 75% possession in both their games, but it was more aimless passing without much penetration, which exposed their inability to open up deep blocks. Both Australia and Paraguay excel in their solidity of deep defence, with the latter even shutting down the Crescent Star with just 10 men for an entire half. Leaving everything to the 21-year-old Guler and Yıldız to shoulder all responsibility without much support ultimately left Turkey clueless when their impact on the game was effectively neutralised. Without proper cohesion and no alternative game plan, they failed miserably.
The Weight of Expectations
However, the reason that ultimately resulted in their elimination is that the team once again crumbled under the weight of expectation. Their talent and potential always heighten anticipation around the team, which doubled up this time after their Euro performance to do exceedingly well in their return to the biggest stage of all. The notion that Turkey will replicate the 2002 glory from the media and their demanding faithful provided a seismic pressure which became difficult to contain. As a case, the team struggled in key moments, causing defensive lapses and poor decision-making, which ended all their hopes in the contest.
What Needs to Change?
Right now, Turkey will have to think about how to end the World Cup 2026 with a somewhat positive result against the USA, which was earlier tipped to be a group decider, to show that everything said around the team was not completely wrong, although even if they pull off a victory, it won’t replace the negativity surrounding their shambolic performance and the embarrassing elimination. The federation has a huge decision to make whether to keep Vincenzo Montella in the dugout, in the idea that the team is yet to completely align with his philosophy and it might be beneficial to maintain the consistency of the progress the side showed under him. However, that seems to be highly unlikely with the side performing way worse than expected in the finals and no board will want to take the pressure from the fans, especially one of the most passionate in the world, let alone in Europe, should the Italian be retained.
After that crucial decision, the priority is establishing a long-term footballing identity that survives beyond individual generations of players. Turkey have often alternated between different tactical approaches and managerial philosophies, preventing continuity from developing. Secondly, greater emphasis must be placed on defensive stability. The talent already exists in attacking areas, but successful tournament teams are built on organisation, discipline and consistency as much as creativity. Until those defensive issues are resolved, Turkey will find it difficult to progress beyond the latter stages of major tournaments. Requiring a proper number nine through the system is also necessary. Finally, Turkey need patience. The current generation, led by Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, remains exceptionally young. Rather than expecting immediate success, the Turkish Football Federation should focus on building a sustainable project capable of peaking over multiple tournaments.
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